Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:31:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bc4…d4c1 sports 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$24 (-6%) realized −$23 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -15.6% -23.7% 43% 36% -17.7%
≤30d 14 -15.6% -23.7% 43% 36% -17.7%
≤90d 14 -15.6% -23.7% 43% 36% -17.7%
all 14 -15.6% -23.7% 43% 36% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 36% -17.7%
10% -31.0% 36% -25.6%
15% -37.6% 36% -32.8%
20% -43.7% 29% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage7d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 47¢ 46¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Los Angeles Angels 45¢ 44¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ 46¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $11 +$1 +9%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $14 +$25 +172%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $48 +$31 +65%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $23 −$2 -7%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $56 +$23 +41%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $16 +$16 +101%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $19 +$19 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $25 15m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 45¢ $25 40m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 47¢ $32 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 45¢ $12 24h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 40¢ $11 42h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $48 43h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $14 44h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 46¢ $22 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 42¢ $10 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 45¢ $11 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 58¢ $47 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $13 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $12 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $15 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 47¢ $16 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $16 5d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $16 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $18 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $22 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $19 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $23 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.24 · official $79.24 (match) · 34 history records