Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bc6…f11c other 255 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%14W / 241L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$24
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$44
sports 21% −$18
culture 7% −$8
economics 7% −$8
politics 6% −$8
crypto 5% −$5
world 5% −$4
tech 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 255 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses14 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)255 / 255
History coverage143d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 255 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $251 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $254 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $636 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 19 $121 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $174 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $345 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $301 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $283 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $261 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $440 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $992 −$2 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $609 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $285 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $486 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $139 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $264 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $166 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $426 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $810 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $233 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $506 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $291 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $472 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $326 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $613 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $265 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $245 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 28m
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 3h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 4h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 10h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $54 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 13h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 16h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $54 18h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 19h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 21h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 25h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 27h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 31h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 32h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $55 37h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $55 38h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 46h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 3d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1480 history records