Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:12:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bc7…7c38 sports 227 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%21W / 206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$5
other 24% −$6
politics 22% −$4
crypto 9% −$1
economics 6% $0
world 3% $0
culture 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 5 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 227 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses21 / 206
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)227 / 227
History coverage177d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 227 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $42 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $173 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $46 $0 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 20 $307 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $86 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 20 $183 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $93 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 20 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $155 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 20 $147 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 20 $265 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 20 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $213 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 19 $203 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $150 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? Feb 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $310 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 19 $96 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $73 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $107 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $128 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 18 $244 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $124 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 18 $153 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $101 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 18 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $113 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 18 $103 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $238 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 16 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $42 1h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $42 6h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $36 8d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $36 8d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $45 15d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $46 15d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $43 27d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $43 28d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $39 41d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $39 41d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $18 125d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $22 125d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $9 125d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $18 125d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $19 125d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 97¢ $50 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $49 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $49 125d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $42 125d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $42 125d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $48 125d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $48 125d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $20 125d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $30 125d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $30 125d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $29 125d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $48 125d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $47 125d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $47 125d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 890 history records