Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:46:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9B 0x9bc8…a613 sports 292 markets active 2h ago coverage 644d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,424 (-2%) realized −$5,403 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate65%188W / 103L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$891per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$547est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$249
7 days+$487
14 days−$393
30 days−$13,875
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$3,702
other 49% −$10,488
world 1% +$1,030
crypto 0% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +5.1% -4.9% 62% 60% +1.6%
≤30d 136 -2.0% -11.3% 58% 54% -34.0%
≤90d 141 -0.0% -9.5% 59% 55% -18.5%
all 291 -0.8% -10.3% 65% 56% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 56% -11.5%
10% -18.9% 44% -20.0%
15% -26.7% 35% -27.7%
20% -33.9% 26% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$1,713) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$337 vs −$669 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

644d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$5,403
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses188 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$547
Open positions1
Markets (closed)291 / 292
History coverage644d
Avg bet$891
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Over 82¢ 62¢ $84 $63 −$21 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $55 +$28 +52%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $498 +$55 +11%
Set 2 Winner: Korneeva vs Garcia Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $399 +$197 +49%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia Jun 24 $36 +$11 +31%
Set 1 Winner: Safiullin vs Coppejans Jun 24 $42 +$18 +43%
Set 1 Winner: Bu vs Tabur Jun 24 $20 +$12 +59%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $46 −$46 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $93 −$93 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $398 +$44 +11%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 23 $100 +$43 +43%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $517 +$32 +6%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Set 2 Winner: Gorgodze vs Valdmannova Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne Jun 23 $20 +$10 +49%
Set 2 Winner: Masarova vs Teichmann Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Set 2 Winner: Krueger vs Knutson Jun 23 $40 +$23 +57%
Set 1 Winner: Krueger vs Knutson Jun 23 $10 +$8 +82%
Set 1 Winner: Semenistaja vs Siskova Jun 23 $20 +$17 +85%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 23 $51 −$1 -1%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $151 +$69 +46%
Set 2 Winner: Skatov vs Barrena Jun 22 $10 +$4 +43%
Set 2 Winner: Smith vs Ficovich Jun 22 $10 +$7 +67%
Set 2 Winner: Snigur vs Kalinina Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andres Andrade vs Colton Smith Jun 22 $20 +$16 +77%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $51 +$39 +76%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 21 $50 +$26 +53%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 +$55 +55%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $101 +$71 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Jun 20 $101 +$12 +12%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 +$33 +64%
Set 2 Winner: Zverev vs Fritz Jun 20 $20 +$20 +100%
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Fritz Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $54 +$33 +62%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $10 +$19 +184%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $98 −$3 -3%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $10 +$9 +86%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $51 +$33 +64%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $83 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 65¢ $55 2h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $553 2h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $498 3h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $596 5h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $399 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia SELL Alina Korneeva 100¢ $48 9h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia BUY Alina Korneeva 76¢ $36 10h
Set 1 Winner: Safiullin vs Coppejans SELL Safiullin 100¢ $60 10h
Set 1 Winner: Safiullin vs Coppejans BUY Safiullin 70¢ $40 10h
Set 1 Winner: Safiullin vs Coppejans BUY Safiullin 70¢ $2 10h
Set 2 Winner: Korneeva vs Garcia BUY Korneeva 50¢ $4 11h
Set 2 Winner: Korneeva vs Garcia BUY Korneeva 50¢ $1 11h
Set 2 Winner: Korneeva vs Garcia BUY Korneeva 50¢ $15 11h
Set 1 Winner: Bu vs Tabur SELL Bu 100¢ $32 14h
Set 1 Winner: Bu vs Tabur BUY Bu 62¢ $20 15h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $46 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $442 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $398 26h
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $93 27h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $143 27h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 70¢ $90 29h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 70¢ $5 29h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 70¢ $5 29h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $549 32h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $517 32h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne BUY Aliaksandra Sasnovich 67¢ $20 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.73 · official $64.77 · 1176 history records