trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 97¢ | 99¢ | $250,029 | $257,216 | +$7,186 (+3%) |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 67¢ | $60,017 | $80,123 | +$20,106 (+33%) |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 33¢ | $60,017 | $39,912 | −$20,106 (-34%) |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 73¢ | 79¢ | $18,182 | $19,662 | +$1,480 (+8%) |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 38¢ | 23¢ | $15,058 | $9,180 | −$5,878 (-39%) |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 22¢ | 18¢ | $5,155 | $4,101 | −$1,055 (-20%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $7,622 | −$4,022 | -53% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 11 | $9,250 | +$750 | +8% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 31 | $12,910 | +$1,940 | +15% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Apr 29 | $284,492 | +$54,136 | +19% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m | Apr 01 | $207 | −$126 | -61% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -22.3% | -29.7% | 50% | 0% | -27.1% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -9.9% | -18.5% | 67% | 33% | -13.6% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -14.3% | -22.5% | 60% | 40% | +5.6% |
| all | 5 | -14.3% | -22.5% | 60% | 40% | +5.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -22.5% | 40% | +5.6% |
| 10% | -29.9% | 0% | -4.5% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -36.7% | 0% | -13.7% |
| 20% | -42.9% | 0% | -22.2% |