Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:50:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9B
0x9bcb…8626
other · 34 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$897 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,566 · open −$83
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$16,066
Realized+$1,566
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses6 / 20
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions8
Markets (closed)26 / 34
History coverage72d
Avg bet$569
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit21%
Chart Positions 8 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,000 $4,431 +$431 (+11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,000 $2,980 −$20 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,000 $2,925 −$75 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,000 $1,987 −$13 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,000 $1,912 −$88 (-4%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $950 −$50 (-5%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $750 −$250 (-25%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $149 $130 −$19 (-12%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Yes 23¢ $293 $0 −$293 (-100%)
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 3 - 2 Manchester United FC? Yes $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Yes 26¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 1 - 3 Manchester United FC? Yes $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? Yes 13¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Liverpool FC? Yes 12¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Yes 43¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 3 - 1 Manchester United FC? Yes $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Liverpool FC? Yes $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 Real Madrid CF? Yes $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Yes 20¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 Real Madrid CF? Yes 19¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 0 Real Madrid CF? Yes $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? Yes 12¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 3 - 3 Manchester United FC? Yes $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bruno Fernandes: Anytime Goalscorer Yes 27¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 1 - 2 Manchester United FC? Yes $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $200 −$197 -98%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 3 - 2 Manchester United FC? Apr 18 $30 −$29 -97%
Bruno Fernandes: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 18 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Apr 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 3 - 1 Manchester United FC? Apr 18 $20 −$19 -97%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 3 - 3 Manchester United FC? Apr 18 $20 −$19 -97%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 1 - 3 Manchester United FC? Apr 18 $20 −$19 -97%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 1 - 2 Manchester United FC? Apr 18 $20 −$19 -97%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 2 - 3 Manchester United FC? Apr 18 $20 −$19 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $30 +$179 +595%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $200 +$77 +38%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $300 +$206 +69%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 Real Madrid CF? Apr 15 $35 −$34 -97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 Real Madrid CF? Apr 15 $40 −$39 -98%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 0 Real Madrid CF? Apr 15 $25 −$24 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Liverpool FC? Apr 09 $20 +$196 +981%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 08 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Apr 08 $300 −$293 -98%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? Apr 08 $30 −$29 -97%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? Apr 08 $30 −$29 -97%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 2 Club Atlético de Madrid? Apr 08 $30 −$29 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Liverpool FC? Apr 08 $30 −$29 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Liverpool FC? Apr 08 $30 −$29 -97%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $250 +$1,786 +714%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $150 +$266 +177%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 94% −$108
sports 4% −$461
world 2% +$2,052
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $154 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,030 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,030 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3,083 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3,088 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,055 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,059 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4,114 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $288 9h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $257 9h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $308 22h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $308 22h
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 43¢ $200 56d
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 3 - 2 Manchester United FC? BUY Yes $30 56d
Bruno Fernandes: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 27¢ $40 56d
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 24¢ $50 56d
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $100 56d
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 3 - 1 Manchester United FC? BUY Yes $20 56d
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 3 - 3 Manchester United FC? BUY Yes $20 56d
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 1 - 3 Manchester United FC? BUY Yes $20 56d
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 1 - 2 Manchester United FC? BUY Yes $20 56d
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 2 - 3 Manchester United FC? BUY Yes $20 56d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 100¢ $209 59d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $30 59d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $277 59d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 38¢ $506 59d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 59d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $300 59d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 Real Madrid CF? BUY Yes $35 59d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 Real Madrid CF? BUY Yes 19¢ $40 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 26 +22.1% +10.5% 23% 23% +58.2%
all 26 +22.1% +10.5% 23% 23% +58.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.5% 23% +58.2%
10% -0.1% 23% +43.1%
15% -9.8% 23% +29.2%
20% -18.6% 19% +16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,065.81 · official $16,074.74 (match) · 51 history records