Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:09:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9B 0x9bce…f668 crypto 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$307 (+12%) realized +$307 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%43W / 35L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$82
14 days+$252
30 days+$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$248
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +6.8% -3.4% 57% 52% +1.6%
≤30d 65 -4.9% -14.0% 52% 46% +1.9%
≤90d 78 -7.7% -16.5% 55% 44% +1.7%
all 78 -7.7% -16.5% 55% 44% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 44% +1.7%
10% -24.5% 38% -8.0%
15% -31.8% 35% -16.9%
20% -38.4% 28% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$22 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$307
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses43 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage35d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$26 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$32 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$37 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$18 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$62 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $62 +$27 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$16 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$28 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$42 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $155 +$65 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$16 -52%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $155 +$62 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$72 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $72 −$69 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$24 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $72 +$45 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$15 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$15 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $72 +$52 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$24 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$41 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$9 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $72 +$69 +95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $57 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $31 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $31 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $31 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $63 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $31 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $32 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $31 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $31 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $13 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $94 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $31 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $43 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $46 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $47 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $31 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $30 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $37 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records