Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9B 0x9bd2…b613 sports 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,089 (+5%) realized +$1,223 · open −$134
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate85%45W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$379per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$201
7 days−$72
14 days+$6
30 days+$1,288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$879
other 21% +$262
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -7.5% -16.3% 81% 32% -10.5%
≤30d 52 +0.1% -9.5% 87% 31% -4.0%
≤90d 53 -1.2% -10.6% 85% 30% -4.1%
all 53 -1.2% -10.6% 85% 30% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 30% -4.1%
10% -19.2% 17% -13.2%
15% -27.0% 9% -21.6%
20% -34.1% 2% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$582) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$94 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$363
Realized+$1,223
Unrealized−$134
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses45 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions4
Markets (closed)53 / 57
History coverage31d
Avg bet$379
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 95¢ 100¢ $294 $309 +$15 (+5%)
Will House of the Dragon Season 3 premiere by June 21? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will "Supergirl" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes 96¢ 90¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-6%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 62¢ $148 $0 −$147 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $101 +$41 +41%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $199 +$53 +26%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $291 −$290 -100%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 19 $276 +$15 +5%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $50 +$12 +24%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $582 +$6 +1%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $582 $0 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will "Doctor Banner" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $48 +$5 +10%
Will "May" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $64 +$10 +16%
Will "MJ" be said 2+ times during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $70 +$11 +16%
Will "School" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $117 +$14 +12%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $222 +$72 +32%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $204 +$14 +7%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $200 +$8 +4%
Will "Kid" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -52%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $339 +$22 +7%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $869 +$65 +7%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $93 +$3 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $289 +$5 +2%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $755 +$7 +1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $785 +$86 +11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $50 +$15 +29%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $50 +$3 +6%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $101 +$47 +46%
Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $757 +$67 +9%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $100 +$4 +4%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 10 $104 +$2 +2%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia Jun 09 $95 +$5 +5%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $325 +$65 +20%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $123 +$70 +57%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $2,233 +$214 +10%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $2,097 +$275 +13%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $578 −$140 -24%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $2,311 +$205 +9%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $1,255 +$119 +10%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 29 $418 +$83 +20%
Citrea FDV above $20M one day after launch? May 28 $616 +$1 +0%
Citrea FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $712 +$53 +7%
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $971 +$60 +6%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $203 +$75 +37%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $304 +$122 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $294 14m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $142 58m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $101 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $252 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $14 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 85¢ $85 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 72¢ $101 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $149 4h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 93¢ $291 7h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout SELL Grind Back 100¢ $291 7h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Grind Back 95¢ $276 10h
Will "Supergirl" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? BUY Yes 96¢ $23 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 80¢ $50 26h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 67¢ $101 26h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $588 27h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 99¢ $582 28h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $582 28h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 100¢ $562 28h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $20 28h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $51 29h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 75¢ $218 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $218 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 73¢ $4 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 94¢ $200 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 68¢ $3 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 95¢ $100 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 97¢ $100 2d
Will "May" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes 87¢ $12 2d
Will "School" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes 87¢ $56 2d
Will "Doctor Banner" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes 89¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $362.56 · official $361.96 (match) · 178 history records