Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:58:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

9B 0x9bd2…e533 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$110 (+17%) realized +$58 · open +$52

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +70% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip

Net edge+48%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown89%max

Avg bet$162per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$542now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+54.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+70.5%	+54.3%	33%	33%	+57.4%
≤30d	3	+70.5%	+54.3%	33%	33%	+57.4%
≤90d	3	+70.5%	+54.3%	33%	33%	+57.4%
all	3	+70.5%	+54.3%	33%	33%	+57.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+54.3%	33%	+57.4%
10%	+39.5%	33%	+42.3%
15%	+26.0%	33%	+28.6%
20%	+13.7%	33%	+15.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +74% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +71% · $-wt +74% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$206 vs −$49 · ×4.24 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$542

Realized+$58

Unrealized+$52

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$162

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown89%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	61¢	68¢	$489	$542	+$52 (+11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$50	+$206	+412%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5)	Jun 25	$50	−$49	-97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$50	−$48	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$300	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$200	1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5)	BUY Côte dIvoire	43¢	$50	23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	22¢	$50	24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	19¢	$50	24h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $541.52 · official $533.49 · 6 history records