Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:40:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bd6…107b sports 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$713 (-24%) realized −$650 · open −$63
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%26W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$105
14 days−$300
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$448
other 19% −$182
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +19.3% +7.9% 48% 43% +3.0%
≤30d 55 -5.9% -14.9% 42% 40% -16.1%
≤90d 58 -10.8% -19.3% 40% 38% -23.4%
all 71 -19.5% -27.2% 37% 35% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 35% -29.1%
10% -34.2% 35% -35.9%
15% -40.5% 35% -42.1%
20% -46.4% 34% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$35 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$650
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses26 / 45
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)71 / 78
History coverage164d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 42¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $33 +$13 (+64%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 16¢ $100 $29 −$71 (-71%)
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 27¢ 22¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$17 +43%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$64 +210%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$7 +7%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND W Jun 23 $10 +$16 +161%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $30 +$23 +76%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026- Jun 22 $30 +$29 +96%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$21 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $41 +$28 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $76 +$68 +90%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 −$48 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina Jun 17 $16 +$124 +769%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$43 +140%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $28 +$22 +79%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $58 −$57 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $76 −$75 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $152 −$150 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $20 +$15 +73%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 09 $10 +$14 +134%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $10 +$15 +152%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$111 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 05 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $51 −$50 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 01 $30 +$30 +97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $66 +$85 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 27¢ $26 39m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $51 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $61 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $31 4h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $20 4h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $41 7h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 62¢ $51 7h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $58 19h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals AND Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY $5 20h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY 38¢ $25 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 32¢ $31 32h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $30 32h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND W BUY 38¢ $10 32h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026- BUY 50¢ $30 32h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $40 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 63¢ $40 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $41 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $76 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $5 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $20 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes $7 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.82 · official $161.82 (match) · 134 history records