Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:08:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9B
0x9bdb…a4c3
sports · 32 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$7 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open +$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$74
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)18 / 32
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 14 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? No 47¢ 44¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-6%)
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus Savannah Broadus 25¢ 100¢ $3 $13 +$10 (+301%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Suzan Lamens 69¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Taro Daniel 41¢ 60¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+45%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Katie Volynets 47¢ 56¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+19%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Kraus Polina Kudermetova 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 45¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Parks Alycia Parks 20¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Roberto Bautista Agut 35¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Fenerbahce 64¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Darja Vidmanova 39¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Libema Open (Doubles): Aoyama/Liang vs Neel/Olmos Neel/Olmos 45¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? No 35¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Halle Open, Qualification (Doubles): Altmaier/Fonseca vs Nouza/Oberleitner Nouza/Oberleitner 21¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 44¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 48¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Marc-Andrea Huesler 33¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $3 $0 -3%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $3 $0 -4%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $2 +$3 +146%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $2 +$3 +129%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $1 $0 -15%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $2 $0 -21%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Fernandez/Siegemund vs Jovic/Kessler Jun 13 $3 $0 -3%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $3 +$2 +93%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification (Doubles): Altmaier/Fonseca vs Nouza/Oberlei Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $2 +$3 +114%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Libema Open (Doubles): Aoyama/Liang vs Neel/Olmos Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 48% +$8
politics 47% −$2
other 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 69¢ $3 20m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar BUY Tommy Paul 51¢ $3 28m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja BUY Polina Kudermetova 51¢ $3 31m
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut BUY Roberto Bautista Agut 35¢ $2 58m
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar SELL Anna Blinkova 55¢ $3 1h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 56¢ $3 1h
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus BUY Savannah Broadus 29¢ $1 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 1h
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder BUY Julia Avdeeva 87¢ $4 1h
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus BUY Savannah Broadus 23¢ $1 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 1h
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus BUY Savannah Broadus 21¢ $1 1h
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Rep BUY Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 47¢ $2 1h
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 41¢ $2 1h
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Repre BUY No 46¢ $2 3h
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Repre BUY No 46¢ $2 3h
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Repre BUY No 46¢ $2 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 7h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Los Angeles Sparks 40¢ $2 9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 35¢ $2 10h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 14h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 48¢ $2 15h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 32¢ $1 15h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 36¢ $1 15h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 36¢ $2 16h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 44¢ $2 16h
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson BUY Lucia Bronzetti 43¢ $2 16h
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Fernandez/Siegemund vs Jovic/Kessler BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 51¢ $3 17h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 64¢ $3 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -19.5% -27.2% 28% 28% -23.2%
≤30d 18 -19.5% -27.2% 28% 28% -23.2%
≤90d 18 -19.5% -27.2% 28% 28% -23.2%
all 18 -19.5% -27.2% 28% 28% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.2% 28% -23.2%
10% ← realistic here -34.1% 22% -30.5%
15% -40.5% 22% -37.2%
20% -46.3% 22% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.71 · official $73.71 (match) · 58 history records