Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bdb…2e12 crypto 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,890 (-42%) realized −$3,980 · open +$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%32W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days−$150
14 days−$150
30 days−$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$3,649
world 14% −$110
sports 9% −$412
economics 1% −$100
other 1% +$34
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -65.1% -68.4% 12% 12% -47.6%
≤30d 8 -65.1% -68.4% 12% 12% -47.6%
≤90d 31 -69.5% -72.4% 16% 13% -45.1%
all 124 -7.3% -16.1% 26% 23% -56.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 23% -56.5%
10% -24.1% 23% -60.7%
15% -31.5% 22% -64.5%
20% -38.2% 21% -68.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$63 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized−$3,980
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses32 / 92
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)124 / 131
History coverage242d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? No 7¢ 10¢ $100 $146 +$46 (+46%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $10 $37 +$27 (+270%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 10¢ 34¢ $10 $34 +$24 (+240%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $210 −$100 -48%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 15 $105 +$91 +87%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 22? May 17 $56 −$52 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 17 $75 −$70 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 22? May 17 $159 −$150 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? May 17 $106 −$100 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 17? May 17 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 15? May 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 15? May 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Apr 07 $796 +$67 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 07 $300 +$23 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 3? Mar 29 $208 −$208 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 31? Mar 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 29? Mar 25 $74 −$73 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 24? Mar 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 24? Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 23? Mar 23 $87 +$139 +159%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 22? Mar 22 $40 −$40 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Mar 21 $35 −$10 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 27? Mar 21 $100 −$99 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 20? Mar 20 $132 +$99 +75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 25? Mar 19 $100 −$99 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 19? Mar 19 $50 +$25 +49%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 19? Mar 19 $80 +$10 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 18? Mar 18 $76 +$94 +124%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Mar 18 $70 −$34 -48%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Mar 18 $57 −$15 -26%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 17? Mar 17 $75 −$74 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $60 +$51 +86%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 8? Mar 02 $100 +$119 +119%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 02 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 25? Feb 19 $199 −$199 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 25? Feb 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 30? Jan 24 $499 −$499 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 23? Jan 22 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 22? Jan 22 $626 −$624 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 22? Jan 22 $100 −$74 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 22? Jan 22 $299 −$299 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 20? Jan 20 $63 −$63 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 7¢ $107 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $11 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL No 94¢ $340 27h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Algeria 3¢ $10 30h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $105 39h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 3¢ $10 2d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 5¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 1¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 62¢ $196 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 28¢ $105 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $102 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $105 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 15¢ $56 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 8¢ $75 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 22? BUY Yes 17¢ $159 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? BUY Yes 11¢ $106 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $53 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 15? BUY No 4¢ $21 33d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $863 71d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $323 71d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $796 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.04 · official $238.78 · 237 history records