Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:00:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9be1…4cd8 politics 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$23
politics 36% −$19
sports 9% −$9
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 101 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 133 -1.3% -10.7% 8% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage131d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $252 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 18 $311 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $224 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 26 $231 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $547 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 24 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $215 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $243 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $257 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 22 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $255 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $943 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $267 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $302 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $255 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 12 $299 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $495 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $221 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $229 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $277 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $462 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $282 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $264 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $225 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $216 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $1,145 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Apr 30 $304 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $312 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $234 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $224 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $296 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $484 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $262 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $267 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 19 $243 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 38h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 42h
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $43 2d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $43 3d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $49 4d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $49 17d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 17d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 18d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $224 24d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $224 26d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $249 26d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $249 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $231 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $231 28d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $251 28d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $251 29d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $283 29d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $283 29d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $237 29d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $237 30d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 30d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $215 30d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $243 30d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $243 30d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $300 30d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $300 31d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $257 31d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $257 31d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $239 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.98 · official $46.98 (match) · 458 history records