Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:41:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9B 0x9be3…d0b8 finance 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$104 (+30%) realized +$100 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$19
14 days+$100
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 30% +$25
finance 23% +$37
other 20% −$20
sports 18% +$63
world 9% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.6% -13.7% 50% 50% +5.9%
≤30d 6 +24.9% +13.0% 67% 67% +35.1%
≤90d 6 +24.9% +13.0% 67% 67% +35.1%
all 7 +7.1% -3.1% 57% 57% +33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 57% +33.2%
10% -12.4% 57% +20.5%
15% -20.8% 57% +8.8%
20% -28.6% 57% -1.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$11 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.99 per $1 lost it wins $3.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized+$100
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage105d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 40¢ 53¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+33%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 58¢ 55¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 39¢ 35¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 24 $51 +$26 +50%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $18 −$14 -81%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $19 −$15 -78%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $25 +$23 +90%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $63 +$63 +101%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $25 +$17 +67%
Will Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.49 · official $146.63 · 17 history records