Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:01:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9be4…aa0e crypto 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$187 (+7%) realized +$308 · open −$121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%18W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$62
14 days+$73
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$54
sports 14% −$121
world 4% −$15
other 3% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.2% -32.3% 25% 25% +26.2%
≤30d 16 -10.2% -18.8% 44% 38% +2.2%
≤90d 28 -2.5% -11.8% 54% 50% -5.8%
all 41 -16.8% -24.7% 44% 41% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 41% -12.6%
10% -31.9% 32% -21.0%
15% -38.5% 17% -28.6%
20% -44.5% 17% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$25 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$308
Unrealized−$121
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage97d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Group B Game Hunters 29¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B OG 30¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $47 −$20 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $73 +$146 +199%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $118 +$21 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $33 −$4 -12%
Anthropic vs Meta — higher valuation on June 30? Jun 15 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$23 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$13 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 18 $287 −$143 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 18 $78 +$19 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 18 $232 +$57 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 18 $339 −$2 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 18 $105 −$76 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 18 $79 +$104 +132%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 18 $97 +$15 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 18 $63 +$13 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 18 $52 +$15 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 18 $42 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 18 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 19 $56 −$55 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 19 $41 +$36 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 19 $17 +$5 +27%
Will Gonzaga win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $22 +$8 +34%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 19 $70 −$11 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Mar 19 $42 −$17 -40%
Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 22, 2026? Mar 19 $26 −$4 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick World Ch BUY Game Hunters 30¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick World Ch BUY Game Hunters 28¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY OG 11¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY OG 25¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY OG 38¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY OG 44¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Betclic Apogee Esports 75¢ $133 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 34¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 38¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 31¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Betclic Apogee Esports 26¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Betclic Apogee Esports 44¢ $121 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 5¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 8¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 17¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 29¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 34¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 34¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Betclic Apogee Esports 64¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 41¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL OG 46¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY OG 26¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Betclic Apogee Esports 72¢ $105 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 61¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 38¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.21 · official $0.21 (match) · 219 history records