Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:08:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9B 0x9be5…985e other 308 markets active 2h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,531 (+4%) realized +$1,927 · open −$396
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%209W / 68L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$3,221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$47
14 days+$171
30 days+$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 27% +$874
other 26% +$145
politics 14% −$528
finance 12% +$191
world 9% +$79
sports 6% +$176
tech 4% +$56
culture 2% +$21
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +7.1% -3.1% 81% 38% -5.9%
≤30d 44 +1.9% -7.8% 70% 32% -3.9%
≤90d 131 +1.1% -8.5% 72% 27% -4.2%
all 277 +0.3% -9.3% 75% 25% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 25% -5.7%
10% -18.0% 9% -14.7%
15% -25.9% 6% -22.9%
20% -33.2% 4% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$3,221
Realized+$1,927
Unrealized−$396
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses209 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions31
Markets (closed)277 / 308
History coverage283d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 82¢ $800 $1,306 +$506 (+63%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 18¢ $800 $294 −$506 (-63%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 67¢ 86¢ $143 $185 +$42 (+29%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 83¢ 77¢ $178 $166 −$12 (-6%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $111 $116 +$5 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $109 $108 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 81¢ 98¢ $89 $108 +$19 (+21%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $94 $99 +$5 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 91¢ 99¢ $91 $99 +$8 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 86¢ 72¢ $86 $72 −$14 (-16%)
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $68 $72 +$4 (+5%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $55 $61 +$6 (+11%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 70¢ 99¢ $42 $60 +$18 (+42%)
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? No 88¢ 96¢ $44 $48 +$4 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $52 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 80¢ 99¢ $38 $46 +$9 (+23%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 90¢ 92¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 84¢ 100¢ $34 $40 +$6 (+18%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? No 78¢ 100¢ $31 $40 +$9 (+28%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 84¢ 96¢ $25 $29 +$3 (+14%)
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? No 46¢ 80¢ $16 $28 +$12 (+75%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 90¢ $24 $27 +$3 (+12%)
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision? No 84¢ 83¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 19 $39 +$2 +6%
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? Jun 19 $14 $0 +4%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Jun 18 $79 +$2 +3%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $43 +$7 +16%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $41 −$12 -28%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th Jun 16 $175 +$29 +17%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $177 +$23 +13%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $44 +$9 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $97 −$28 -29%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $18 +$2 +13%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $141 +$13 +9%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $152 +$8 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $45 +$2 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $45 +$3 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$16 -42%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $502 +$98 +20%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $232 +$5 +2%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -52%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 10 $166 +$28 +17%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 10 $88 −$14 -16%
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? Jun 10 $56 +$7 +13%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 10 $93 +$2 +2%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 03 $38 +$2 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 03 $8 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $64 −$13 -20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $100 +$10 +10%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 01 $37 −$22 -61%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $138 +$12 +9%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 01 $99 +$41 +42%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? May 31 $6 +$3 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 30 $8 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $75 −$9 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 30 $130 −$6 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $37 +$2 +6%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? May 27 $3 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? May 27 $14 +$4 +32%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca May 27 $189 +$11 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $19 +$18 +98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 26 $17 −$16 -94%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 23 $35 +$3 +8%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 18 $6 −$3 -49%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? May 18 $69 +$6 +9%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 16 $16 +$4 +29%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 16 $86 +$10 +12%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April? May 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 15 $43 +$5 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 1h
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY No 84¢ $25 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 1h
Ebola case in the US by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $19 4h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 11h
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 83¢ $42 12h
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 82¢ $11 12h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 13h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 80¢ $14 13h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 88¢ $44 27h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 97¢ $19 27h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 34h
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 35h
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 35h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 97¢ $19 36h
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 70¢ $16 36h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? BUY No 76¢ $14 36h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 80¢ $40 36h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 37h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 37h
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 37h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $19 43h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 97¢ $19 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $16 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 92¢ $91 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 92¢ $18 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 85¢ $17 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 23¢ $3 3d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 89¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,220.61 · official $3,220.08 (match) · 2049 history records