Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:24:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9B 0x9be8…a6bf other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$98 (-7%) realized −$48 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$718now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-78.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -76.5% -78.7% 0% 0% -71.0%
≤30d 2 -76.5% -78.7% 0% 0% -71.0%
≤90d 2 -76.5% -78.7% 0% 0% -71.0%
all 2 -76.5% -78.7% 0% 0% -71.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -78.7% 0% -71.0%
10% -80.7% 0% -73.8%
15% -82.6% 0% -76.3%
20% -84.3% 0% -78.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -76% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$103 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$718
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $250 $219 −$31 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $191 $189 −$2 (-1%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $77 $58 −$19 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $98 −$97 -99%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $206 −$109 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $98 2h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $97 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $196 27h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $79 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $256 27h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $206 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $257 27h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY 16¢ $308 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $717.70 · official $717.70 (match) · 9 history records