Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bea…aa5d other 17 markets active 4h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$79 (-13%) realized −$10 · open −$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$22
world 22% −$85
crypto 2% −$12
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -29.0% -35.8% 46% 38% -11.8%
≤30d 13 -29.0% -35.8% 46% 38% -11.8%
≤90d 13 -29.0% -35.8% 46% 38% -11.8%
all 13 -29.0% -35.8% 46% 38% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.8% 38% -11.8%
10% -41.9% 31% -20.3%
15% -47.6% 31% -28.0%
20% -52.7% 31% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage15d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $112 $112 +$1 (+0%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $112 $43 −$69 (-62%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $131 +$28 +21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$11 -68%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 +$12 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 +$22 +92%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $10 3h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $20 3h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $20 3h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $22 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 9h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $158 9h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $23 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $131 27h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 27h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $20 27h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 66¢ $5 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $13 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $16 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $13 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $13 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $46 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.90 · official $184.90 (match) · 51 history records