Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:49:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

9B 0x9bf1…00ba other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$57 (+47%) realized +$88 · open −$31

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip

Net edge+37%after slip

Net WR71%break-even

Win rate86%6W / 1L

Drawdown2%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day3.2pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +71%

net ROI/market (all)+42.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+57.6%	+42.6%	86%	71%	+73.8%
≤30d	7	+57.6%	+42.6%	86%	71%	+73.8%
≤90d	7	+57.6%	+42.6%	86%	71%	+73.8%
all	7	+57.6%	+42.6%	86%	71%	+73.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+42.6%	71%	+73.8%
10%	+29.0%	71%	+57.2%
15%	+16.5%	57%	+42.0%
20%	+5.1%	43%	+28.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 75% · top 2 85% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +92% too few recent

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +58% · $-wt +92% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$1 · ×9.62 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×57.72 per $1 lost it wins $57.72

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$29

Realized+$88

Unrealized−$31

Win rate (resolved)86%

Wins / losses6 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage4d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day3.2

Drawdown2%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	66¢	32¢	$60	$29	−$31 (-52%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	+$43	+216%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 20	$15	+$1	+10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$16	+$4	+24%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$4	+$6	+134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$3	+$2	+73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$2	+$1	+47%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$61	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	31¢	$20	17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	80¢	$16	23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$16	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	91¢	$15	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$10	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$0	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$5	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$3	3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$4	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$3	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	67¢	$2	3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	17¢	$1	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.09 · official $31.36 · 16 history records