trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +1.4% | -8.2% | 100% | 0% | -7.7% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +1.1% | -8.6% | 100% | 0% | -8.1% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +2.4% | -7.3% | 100% | 11% | -7.3% |
| all | 22 | +2.2% | -7.5% | 100% | 5% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.5% | 5% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -16.4% | 0% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -24.4% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -31.8% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 97¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C or below on May 21? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M | Jun 12 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Jun 12 | $4 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on April 29? | May 20 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the People's Bank of China not change rates in April? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? | May 20 | $4 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the South Australian Labor Party win the most seats in the next S | Apr 28 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? | Apr 28 | $2 | $0 | +14% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? | Apr 28 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? | Mar 16 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 16 above $1.50? | Mar 16 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | Mar 16 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting | Feb 17 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Feb 17 | $3 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? | Feb 17 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft | Jan 12 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will no CEO be announced in 2025? | Jan 12 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? | Jan 12 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Dec 05 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? | Nov 01 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 16? | Nov 01 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 2? | Nov 01 | $9,056 | +$26 | +0% |