Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bf5…3209 crypto 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-3%) realized −$45 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate69%112W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$49
other 10% −$5
sports 3% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 30% -21.1%
≤30d 10 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 30% -21.1%
≤90d 162 -7.2% -16.0% 69% 40% -13.5%
all 162 -7.2% -16.0% 69% 40% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 40% -13.5%
10% -24.1% 23% -21.8%
15% -31.4% 12% -29.3%
20% -38.1% 6% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses112 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)162 / 171
History coverage75d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+96%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$6 +59%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 06 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 06 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 06 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 06 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 06 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 06 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 06 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 06 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 06 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 06 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 06 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 06 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 06 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 06 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 06 $4 −$3 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 06 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 06 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 06 $6 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 05 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 05 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 05 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 05 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 05 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 05 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 05 $12 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 05 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 05 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 05 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 05 $2 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $14 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 20h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 28h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $26 29h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.69 · official $89.69 (match) · 635 history records