Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:25:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bf5…0acc crypto 862 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (123 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,774 (-30%) realized −$3,774 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate59%510W / 352L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day123.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$813
other 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (123 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 195 +2.1% -7.6% 57% 51% -17.0%
≤30d 862 -0.4% -9.9% 59% 50% -15.2%
≤90d 862 -0.4% -9.9% 59% 50% -15.2%
all 862 -0.4% -9.9% 59% 50% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 50% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 42% -23.3%
15% -26.4% 34% -30.7%
20% -33.6% 26% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,774
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses510 / 352
Open positions0
Markets (closed)862 / 862
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day123.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 862 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $58 −$8 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $57 +$43 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $93 −$90 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$9 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$14 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $34 −$8 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $29 +$22 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$15 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$14 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$15 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$7 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$38 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$24 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$13 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $32 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records