Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:05:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9bf6…a153 crypto 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,374 (+4%) realized +$1,374 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate47%48W / 55L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$47
14 days+$47
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$2,381
crypto 43% −$1,077
other 10% −$46
finance 1% −$65
sports 0% +$31
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +29.2% +16.9% 48% 48% +4.4%
≤30d 41 +7.4% -2.8% 39% 39% -11.1%
≤90d 101 -17.8% -25.7% 47% 32% -4.7%
all 103 -18.3% -26.0% 47% 32% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 32% -4.8%
10% -33.1% 20% -13.9%
15% -39.6% 18% -22.2%
20% -45.5% 15% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -40% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$59 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,374
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses48 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 106
History coverage131d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $43 −$10 -23%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $16 +$37 +233%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $32 +$6 +20%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $18 +$26 +140%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$10 +463%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $1 +$3 +286%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 +$14 +39%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Netherlands win o Jun 20 $10 +$9 +87%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 +$12 +66%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$5 +100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 +$5 +66%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$4 +22%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -91%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$5 -77%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $18 +$12 +68%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $67 −$65 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $102 −$33 -32%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 06 $20 −$13 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 04 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$13 +244%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $333 +$71 +21%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 01 $14 −$1 -7%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 01 $2,915 −$21 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 27 $90 −$89 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 27 $77 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 27 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 27 $20 +$13 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 27 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 27 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 27 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 27 $40 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 27 $70 +$8 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 4m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 6m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $54 6m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $23 36m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 55m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 55m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 59¢ $26 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $32 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score AND Will IR Iran win on 2026- BUY 8¢ $5 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $12 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score AND Will Ecuador win on 2026- BUY 28¢ $4 23h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 23h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $49 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 392 history records