Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:46:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bf7…2d1e crypto 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$197 (-20%) realized −$181 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%19W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$206
7 days−$148
14 days−$144
30 days−$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$103
sports 40% −$68
crypto 18% −$41
politics 2% +$3
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -58.2% -62.2% 23% 23% -39.2%
≤30d 31 -49.1% -53.9% 26% 26% -32.6%
≤90d 56 -33.5% -39.9% 34% 30% -30.2%
all 56 -33.5% -39.9% 34% 30% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.9% 30% -30.2%
10% -45.6% 29% -36.9%
15% -50.9% 29% -43.0%
20% -55.7% 27% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$181
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses19 / 37
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions8
Markets (closed)56 / 64
History coverage48d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? No 15¢ 17¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Vinícius Jr. win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $13 $8 −$5 (-41%)
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-51%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Neymar vs. Vinicius Jr. Neymar 6¢ 4¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $5 −$4 -86%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$19 -92%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$8 +81%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -62%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $68 +$44 +65%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -54%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$11 +71%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $29 +$19 +66%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $45 +$101 +226%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 14 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 06 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 05 $3 +$4 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 05 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 05 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 05 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 05 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 05 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 05 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 05 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 05 $12 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 41¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 18¢ $5 4h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 4h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 37h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 38h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $30 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 16¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Will Vinícius Jr. win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $13 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $12 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.00 · official $127.00 (match) · 157 history records