Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:12:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bf8…2b5e world 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate41%31W / 44L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$33
politics 18% $0
other 18% −$3
sports 11% −$7
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +3.0% -6.8% 45% 9% -6.5%
≤30d 26 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 4% -7.5%
≤90d 70 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 1% -8.6%
all 75 -1.3% -10.7% 41% 1% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 1% -8.9%
10% -19.3% 1% -17.6%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.2% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses31 / 44
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)75 / 78
History coverage487d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $72 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $145 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $47 −$2 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $186 +$1 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $80 +$25 +31%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $9 $0 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $102 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $135 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $70 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $25 −$2 -9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $34 +$2 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $44 −$3 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $46 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $51 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $51 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $85 +$9 +10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $43 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $1 $0 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $5 $0 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $41 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $38 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $67 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $5 $0 -2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $42 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $78 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $175 +$1 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $104 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $41 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $42 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $30 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $27 4h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $34 4h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $12 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $29 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $44 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $6 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $30 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $36 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $73 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $73 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $19 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $25 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $45 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $50 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $55 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $19 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $42 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $42 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.00 (match) · 382 history records