Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:45:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bfa…ccea crypto 481 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$94 (+1%) realized −$6 · open +$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate61%291W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,028now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$57
14 days−$84
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$59
world 28% +$67
finance 10% +$20
other 9% −$98
sports 6% −$53
tech 0% +$3
politics 0% −$15
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +2.0% -7.7% 53% 47% -28.1%
≤30d 181 -16.0% -24.0% 54% 43% -16.3%
≤90d 413 -7.8% -16.6% 59% 44% -12.2%
all 479 -7.7% -16.5% 61% 43% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 43% -12.6%
10% -24.5% 32% -21.0%
15% -31.8% 22% -28.6%
20% -38.4% 16% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$2,028
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$100
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses291 / 188
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)479 / 481
History coverage124d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 479 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $1,903 $1,996 +$94 (+5%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? Up 66¢ 83¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? Jun 29 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? Jun 28 $5 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 26 $13 $0 -2%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor Jun 26 $18 −$1 -7%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $10 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$2 -23%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 25 $2 $0 +12%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $5 +$2 +38%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $2 +$1 +50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? Jun 25 $1 +$1 +78%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $61 −$21 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 24 $91 −$42 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $242 +$67 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $98 −$95 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$9 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$7 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? SELL No 98¢ $25 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 47¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 45¢ $5 18h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? SELL No 90¢ $5 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $3 38h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 66¢ $25 43h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? BUY No 94¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $13 2d
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor SELL 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 66¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $13 2d
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner SELL 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 100¢ $13 2d
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 72¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $8 2d
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 68¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 74¢ $4 2d
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 71¢ $3 2d
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 74¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra SELL Inner Circle Esports 69¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 60¢ $2 3d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 66¢ $2 3d
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? SELL Over 100¢ $2 3d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 72¢ $5 4d
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 55¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? SELL Up 30¢ $23 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,027.89 · official $2,027.89 (match) · 1813 history records