Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bfe…fcf2 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%12W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$3
other 34% −$18
politics 11% −$1
finance 7% −$2
sports 6% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.1% -7.6% 40% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 11 +1.4% -8.3% 45% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 18 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 54 -4.3% -13.4% 22% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 0% -11.0%
10% -21.7% 0% -19.5%
15% -29.2% 0% -27.3%
20% -36.2% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses12 / 42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage270d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $47 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $32 +$2 +7%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $44 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $85 −$2 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $50 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $32 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $51 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $3 $0 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $6 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $47 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $9 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 13 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 29 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $18 $0 +3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 10 $2 $0 -8%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 07 $27 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 06 $1 $0 -20%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 28 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 28 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $47 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $47 40h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 85¢ $47 45h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $12 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $35 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $39 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $15 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $18 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $47 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $15 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $20 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $32 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $44 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $44 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $18 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $26 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $44 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $10 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $24 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $35 27d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $50 27d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $50 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $33 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $32 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $27 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.12 · official $47.12 (match) · 308 history records