Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:06:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9C 0x9c01…4548 crypto 578 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,388 (-6%) realized −$1,389 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%165W / 412L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,458
other 0% −$27
tech 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
sports 0% −$5
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -38.7% -44.6% 29% 25% -7.5%
≤30d 69 -33.6% -39.9% 26% 25% -36.4%
≤90d 313 -20.9% -28.4% 28% 27% -27.6%
all 577 -16.3% -24.3% 29% 27% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 27% -25.5%
10% -31.5% 27% -32.7%
15% -38.1% 25% -39.2%
20% -44.2% 23% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$27 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$1,389
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses165 / 412
Open positions1
Markets (closed)577 / 578
History coverage104d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 577 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Down 24¢ 26¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 388 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $50 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $68 +$130 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $37 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $46 +$29 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $37 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $64 +$56 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $32 +$64 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 28 $56 −$53 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $86 +$19 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $53 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $56 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $42 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $44 −$10 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $47 +$46 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $40 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$18 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$11 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$21 +338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $37 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$47 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $37 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $45 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $32 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $22 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $123 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $46 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $32 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $39 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $31 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $75 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $46 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $89 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $31 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $120 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $13 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $51 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $31 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $32 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.37 · official $13.53 · 1111 history records