Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:32:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c07…570d other 406 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,025 (+1%) realized +$1,007 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate51%207W / 197L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$381per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$784now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$24
14 days+$166
30 days+$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$813
other 12% −$100
tech 4% +$207
finance 2% +$177
politics 1% −$89
world 0% +$20
economics 0% +$11
sports 0% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.7% -7.1% 67% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 16 +4.1% -5.8% 81% 12% -6.3%
≤90d 19 +7.6% -2.7% 84% 21% -4.6%
all 404 -10.2% -18.7% 51% 9% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 9% -9.0%
10% -26.5% 5% -17.7%
15% -33.6% 5% -25.7%
20% -40.1% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$566) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$47 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$784
Realized+$1,007
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses207 / 197
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)404 / 406
History coverage526d
Avg bet$381
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 404 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $506 $516 +$10 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $260 $268 +$8 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 150 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 26 $707 −$42 -6%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 24 $474 +$29 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 22 $457 +$36 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 18 $89 +$9 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 18 $442 +$53 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 16 $186 +$11 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $1,311 +$37 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $303 −$10 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $320 +$41 +13%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 07 $778 +$35 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $211 −$31 -15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 01 $252 +$25 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 29 $510 +$10 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $279 +$24 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 28 $109 +$5 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 27 $194 +$4 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 25 $668 +$74 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 13 $162 +$109 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $45 +$255 +567%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 22 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 22 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 22 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 17 $298 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $204 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $261 17h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $232 17h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $502 33h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $123 42h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $203 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $152 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $462 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $234 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $6 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $230 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $494 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $37 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $267 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $51 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $98 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $146 8d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $182 8d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $56 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $349 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $200 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $197 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $90 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $32 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $38 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $8 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $89 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $1 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $28 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $783.96 · official $783.96 (match) · 2702 history records