Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:50:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9C 0x9c11…456a crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate72%42W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$6
crypto 12% +$1
sports 3% −$16
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 58 -1.2% -10.6% 72% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses42 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage552d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? Mar 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? Jan 01 $47 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? Nov 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Oct 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? Sep 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 02 $50 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 16 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 03 $1 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Trump announces the US is giving up NATO command before May? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $5,611 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Milroe be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 19 $27 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Mar 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $36 +$1 +2%
Will $Trump FDV be $45-50b on Feb 1? Feb 07 $15 $0 +0%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Jan 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in the next German election? Jan 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will another team win the Serie A? Jan 24 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $65 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $46 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $21 61d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $36 63d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 91d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $57 93d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $5 122d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 123d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? BUY No 100¢ $57 123d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $4 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $16 151d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $53 151d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $5 181d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $47 183d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $55 211d
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? BUY No 100¢ $18 242d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? BUY No 100¢ $40 243d
Will Solana reach $300 in September? BUY No 100¢ $22 273d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $33 274d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $16 301d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $18 302d
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? BUY No 100¢ $33 302d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $14 334d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 99¢ $50 335d
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? BUY No 100¢ $26 366d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 396d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.35 · official $65.35 (match) · 123 history records