Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:21:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9c13…99b7 sports 961 markets active 2h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$573 (+2%) realized +$574 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%322W / 625L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$202est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$380
7 days+$271
14 days+$1,323
30 days+$1,253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$456
other 9% +$1,277
world 0% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +56.0% +41.1% 28% 28% +6.7%
≤30d 80 +68.8% +52.7% 35% 35% +34.2%
≤90d 347 +11.8% +1.1% 34% 34% +3.4%
all 947 +1.2% -8.5% 34% 34% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 34% -7.8%
10% -17.2% 34% -16.6%
15% -25.2% 34% -24.6%
20% -32.6% 34% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$32 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$574
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses322 / 625
Est. fees paid−$202
Open positions5
Markets (closed)947 / 961
History coverage237d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 947 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+6%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-2%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $27 +$77 +291%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $5 +$195 +3786%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $36 +$67 +188%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $29 +$75 +262%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $24 +$81 +344%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $14 −$13 -97%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $57 −$56 -99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $46 +$57 +124%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $19 −$19 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 +$133 +650%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $54 +$48 +90%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $25 +$80 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $23 +$82 +365%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 21 $20 +$70 +344%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $55 −$54 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $29 −$28 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $11 −$11 -97%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 +$52 +105%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $29 +$75 +262%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $52 +$50 +97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $43 −$42 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? BUY Yes $5 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $27 9h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $16 29h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $36 29h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $57 29h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $29 29h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $10 29h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $24 29h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Son Heungmi BUY 30¢ $32 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $28 39h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 39h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 39h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $46 40h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 40h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $54 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $24 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $55 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $54 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $24 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.43 · official $103.44 (match) · 1378 history records