Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c13…4b42 crypto 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3433 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,843 (-72%) realized −$9,843 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate33%39W / 80L
Whale WR7%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day3433.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$464
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3433 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-48.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -43.1% -48.5% 33% 24% -62.4%
≤30d 119 -43.1% -48.5% 33% 24% -62.4%
≤90d 119 -43.1% -48.5% 33% 24% -62.4%
all 119 -43.1% -48.5% 33% 24% -62.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3433.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.5% 24% -62.4%
10% ← realistic here -53.4% 16% -66.0%
15% -57.9% 11% -69.3%
20% -62.0% 7% -72.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 7% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -80% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
48.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$277 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$9,843
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses39 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 71
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$192
Trades / day3433.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 52¢ 52¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $172 −$172 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $283 −$283 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1,411 −$1,411 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $336 −$336 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $677 −$677 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $257 −$257 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $393 −$393 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $928 −$928 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $353 −$353 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $887 −$887 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $497 −$497 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $503 −$503 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $3,603 −$3,603 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $259 −$259 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1,814 −$1,814 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1,315 −$1,315 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $507 −$507 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $428 −$428 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $460 −$460 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $547 −$547 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $286 −$286 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $415 −$415 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $523 −$523 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $303 −$303 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $229 −$229 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $689 −$689 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $319 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $8 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $8 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $8 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $7 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.01 · official $51.01 (match) · 3500 history records