Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:10:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9c16…4085 sports 183 markets active 14h ago coverage 356d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$302 (+0%) realized +$302 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%100W / 83L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$452per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$159est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$412
7 days−$137
14 days+$94
30 days+$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$1,639
politics 9% +$391
sports 9% −$1,312
economics 1% −$33
crypto 0% +$30
world 0% +$2
tech 0% −$33
finance 0% −$44
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -8.7% -17.4% 61% 46% -13.2%
≤30d 112 +2.7% -7.0% 47% 38% -8.9%
≤90d 125 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 36% -8.5%
all 183 +9.1% -1.3% 55% 36% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 36% -8.9%
10% -10.8% 23% -17.6%
15% -19.4% 17% -25.6%
20% -27.3% 14% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$59 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

356d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$302
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses100 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$159
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 183
History coverage356d
Avg bet$452
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 183 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $30 −$29 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $8 +$7 +92%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $7 +$3 +39%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $74 −$74 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $306 −$306 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $302 +$73 +24%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 +$2 +8%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $11 +$5 +40%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 +$2 +19%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 +$1 +8%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 +$4 +17%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $8 +$2 +24%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $87 −$17 -20%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $3 −$2 -86%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 −$3 -60%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $4 −$3 -70%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $4 +$2 +61%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 $0 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$1 +31%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $4 −$1 -14%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $4 +$6 +144%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $6 +$4 +64%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $9 −$4 -44%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $13 +$2 +15%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $461 +$9 +2%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 +$6 +12%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $362 +$96 +27%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $22 +$20 +92%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 +$10 +21%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $42 +$15 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $21 +$12 +59%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$30 +100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $23 +$69 +299%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $891 +$181 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 13h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $74 36h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $18 36h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $9 36h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $4 36h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $0 36h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $6 36h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $24 36h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $106 36h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 36h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $109 36h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $24 36h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $4 36h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 24¢ $7 40h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 24¢ $16 40h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 24¢ $0 40h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 24¢ $0 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $302 40h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $50 40h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Australia 2¢ $0 42h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 72¢ $7 42h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 35¢ $10 42h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 42h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 32¢ $9 43h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 32¢ $1 43h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 12¢ $5 43h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 3¢ $1 43h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $8 43h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 40¢ $12 43h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 26¢ $11 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1223 history records