Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9C 0x9c17…e1f8 sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$229 (+18%) realized +$611 · open −$382
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +94% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip
Net edge+62%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$628now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$149
other 18% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+75.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +94.1% +75.6% 100% 100% +85.1%
≤30d 3 +94.1% +75.6% 100% 100% +85.1%
≤90d 3 +94.1% +75.6% 100% 100% +85.1%
all 3 +94.1% +75.6% 100% 100% +85.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +75.6% 100% +85.1%
10% +58.8% 100% +67.4%
15% +43.5% 100% +51.2%
20% +29.4% 100% +36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +105% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +94% · $-wt +105% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$628
Realized+$611
Unrealized−$382
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions6
Markets (closed)3 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 46¢ $310 $307 −$3 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 60¢ 60¢ $220 $218 −$2 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Under 58¢ 60¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $66 +$75 +114%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$1 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 +$154 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $203 23m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 60¢ $223 28m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $112 38m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $66 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $91 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $91 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $2 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $628.44 · official $628.44 (match) · 15 history records