Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c19…ea4d sports 807 markets active 2d ago coverage 47d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$87 (-1%) realized −$98 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate63%507W / 293L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day56.3pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$66
14 days−$173
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$48
crypto 38% −$117
world 8% −$8
other 4% +$1
politics 1% −$7
finance 1% +$3
economics 1% +$30
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$16
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -43.6% -48.9% 22% 11% -23.5%
≤30d 682 -4.6% -13.7% 61% 46% -12.0%
≤90d 800 -3.1% -12.3% 63% 49% -11.6%
all 800 -3.1% -12.3% 63% 49% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 49% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 17% -20.0%
15% -28.4% 5% -27.8%
20% -35.4% 4% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses507 / 293
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions7
Markets (closed)800 / 807
History coverage47d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day56.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 800 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $25 $50 +$25 (+97%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $37 $25 −$13 (-34%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $6 $13 +$6 (+105%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $18 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $39 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 13 $20 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $25 −$6 -24%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $1 −$1 -77%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $15 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $10 +$6 +63%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $15 −$2 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -56%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $4 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $25 +$13 +52%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
1H Spread: Knicks (-0.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
1H Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
1H Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 123.5 Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 11 $36 −$13 -37%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +13%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$2 +89%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +72%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -31%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 09 $3 +$1 +38%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 09 $3 +$2 +55%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 09 $3 +$1 +29%
1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 09 $3 +$3 +109%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $13 −$3 -20%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $25 +$9 +38%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $20 +$12 +60%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 07 $2 +$1 +48%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $2 45h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $2 46h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $2 46h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $2 46h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $2 46h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $2 46h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $2 46h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $2 47h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $2 47h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $1 47h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $2 47h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $3 47h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $2 47h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $3 47h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.58 · official $99.58 (match) · 3083 history records