Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:42:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c1c…7980 sports 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$103,844 (-12%) realized −$103,844 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate39%81W / 127L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,195per market
Trades / day86.8pace
Fees−$9,333est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$24,988
other 22% −$5,469
crypto 5% +$20,151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -73.3% -75.8% 16% 10% -50.2%
≤30d 163 -39.2% -45.0% 36% 26% -34.9%
≤90d 208 -17.8% -25.6% 39% 30% -29.2%
all 208 -17.8% -25.6% 39% 30% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.6% 30% -29.2%
10% -32.8% 28% -36.0%
15% ← realistic here -39.3% 26% -42.1%
20% -45.2% 20% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$6,300) neutral
Persistence
early +17% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
16.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,001 vs −$4,260 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$103,844
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses81 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$9,333
Open positions0
Markets (closed)208 / 164
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$5,195
Trades / day86.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 208 Trades
no open positions (118 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-17? Jun 15 $196 −$196 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff Jun 15 $6,147 −$6,147 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 15 $1,505 −$1,505 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 15 $3,835 −$3,835 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 15 $14,969 −$15,227 -102%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 15 $6,555 −$6,555 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Jun 15 $6,048 −$6,048 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Jun 15 $7,566 −$7,566 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 15 $5,610 −$5,610 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma Jun 15 $2,081 −$2,081 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Jun 15 $6,253 −$6,101 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 15 $4,257 −$4,257 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 15 $8,256 −$8,256 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs SK Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi Jun 15 $818 −$814 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Play Jun 15 $726 −$726 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifie Jun 15 $5,696 −$5,696 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Jun 15 $1,534 −$1,534 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 15 $3,350 −$3,350 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 15 $1,816 −$1,816 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Jun 15 $3,034 −$3,034 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Jun 15 $7,995 −$7,995 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q Jun 15 $1,228 −$1,228 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Jun 15 $5,867 −$5,867 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Jun 15 $269 −$269 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Jun 15 $14,317 −$14,317 -100%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Jun 15 $2,993 −$2,993 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 15 $1,420 −$1,412 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Jun 15 $11,378 −$11,378 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Jun 15 $4,425 −$4,425 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 15 $3,036 −$3,036 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Jun 15 $5,688 −$5,680 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Jun 15 $3,213 −$3,213 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 15 $3,613 −$3,319 -92%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 15 $3,344 −$3,344 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 15 $9,816 −$9,816 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tanner Boser vs. Gokhan Saricam (Heavyweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,765 −$1,765 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 15 $10,996 −$10,996 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 15 $8,322 −$8,322 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 15 $935 −$916 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2,713 −$2,711 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Jun 15 $6,069 −$6,069 -100%
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 15 $534 −$534 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 15 $3,795 −$3,795 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Jun 15 $2,870 −$2,870 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20,006 +$21,673 +108%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $24,800 +$15,198 +61%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41,362 +$20,113 +49%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $2,485 −$2,485 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $270 −$265 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16,800 +$800 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $69 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $1 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $35 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $28 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $1 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $92 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $30 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $1 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $1 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $1 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $14 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $121 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $100 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $9 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $286 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $6 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $1 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $2 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $4 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $37 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $102 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $1,846 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $2 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records