Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:54:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c1c…1d6f other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate83%20W / 4L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$1
politics 17% $0
weather 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 24 -5.9% -14.9% 83% 4% -9.6%
all 24 -5.9% -14.9% 83% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 4% -9.6%
10% -23.0% 4% -18.2%
15% -30.5% 4% -26.1%
20% -37.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses20 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)24 / 31
History coverage81d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 15? May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 15? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 15? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on April 22? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on April 21? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on April 21? Apr 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C or higher on April 21? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on March Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Meta (META) close above $570 on March 26? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 26? Mar 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on March 26? Mar 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma Mar 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $885 $0 +0%
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $947 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11PM ET Mar 26 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $1,854 $0 +0%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $942 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 26 $930 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 26 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $315-$320 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$420 on the final day of trading of the we BUY No 96¢ $2 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$180 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 30d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 53d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $2 54d
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 54d
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 54d
Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 54d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C or higher on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 54d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on April 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 54d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $885 80d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $885 80d
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $600 80d
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $347 80d
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $947 80d
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 98¢ $53 80d
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 98¢ $869 80d
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 98¢ $922 80d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $392 80d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $550 80d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 99¢ $942 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.64 · official $9.64 (match) · 68 history records