Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c1d…4162 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 611d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9,775 (-41%) realized −$9,377 · open −$398
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,586per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$161est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,061now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,000
7 days−$1,913
14 days−$686
30 days−$686
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$664
politics 29% −$7,013
other 23% −$420
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -16.0% -24.0% 44% 44% -22.3%
≤30d 10 -7.1% -15.9% 50% 50% -13.6%
≤90d 10 -7.1% -15.9% 50% 50% -13.6%
all 13 -28.5% -35.3% 38% 38% -40.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 38% -40.9%
10% -41.5% 38% -46.5%
15% -47.2% 38% -51.7%
20% -52.3% 38% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -71% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,380 vs −$1,825 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

611d coverage
Net worth$1,061
Realized−$9,377
Unrealized−$398
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$161
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage611d
Avg bet$1,586
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 57¢ $959 $1,061 +$101 (+11%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 32¢ 0¢ $500 $1 −$499 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 20 $1,519 −$1,500 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2,535 −$2,500 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,030 +$2,002 +99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,522 +$1,478 +97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2,030 +$1,970 +97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $354 +$224 +63%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,587 −$1,564 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,044 −$1,023 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1,673 +$1,227 +73%
Will a Democrat win Georgia Presidential Election? Nov 06 $2,450 −$2,450 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 05 $2,055 −$2,055 -100%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 29 $2,507 −$2,507 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $510 1h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $1,519 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $2,535 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 50¢ $2,030 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1,522 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2,030 3d
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $0 3d
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 3d
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 60¢ $101 4d
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 61¢ $253 4d
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 4d
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $130 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $1,015 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $1,587 5d
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 5d
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $0 6d
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,044 6d
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $22 6d
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 6d
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 7d
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $0 8d
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 8d
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $91 8d
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 8d
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $23 8d
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 8d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $97 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,061.42 · official $1,061.42 (match) · 57 history records