Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c1e…bb1e other 242 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$15
14 days−$26
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$44
sports 23% −$22
politics 7% −$7
culture 6% −$6
world 5% −$2
economics 5% −$4
crypto 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 242 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)242 / 242
History coverage133d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 242 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $413 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $173 $0 +0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $398 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $482 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $144 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $159 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $213 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $621 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $161 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $289 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $162 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $818 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $442 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $385 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $305 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 06 $230 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $713 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $214 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $138 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 03 $736 −$2 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $793 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $71 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $229 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $522 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $328 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $276 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $481 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $206 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 29 $73 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 2h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $63 4h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $63 5h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 29h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 31h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 38h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 40h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 44h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 46h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $63 47h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $63 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 3d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 3d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 3d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $64 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $64 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 4d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 4d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1361 history records