Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:13:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9C 0x9c20…5b3d other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-9%) realized −$6 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$15
sports 24% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +22.2% +10.6% 50% 50% +30.0%
≤30d 6 -17.3% -25.2% 33% 33% +10.2%
≤90d 6 -17.3% -25.2% 33% 33% +10.2%
all 6 -17.3% -25.2% 33% 33% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 33% +10.2%
10% -32.3% 33% -0.3%
15% -38.9% 17% -9.9%
20% -44.9% 17% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×4.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage15d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 68¢ $52 $48 −$4 (-7%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic Jun 29 $20 −$2 -8%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 29 $1 $0 -22%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $27 +$23 +85%
British Columbia Lions vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats Jun 14 $6 −$5 -93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $19 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 76¢ $19 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $33 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 81¢ $20 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $3 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $2 5h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
British Columbia Lions vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats SELL British Columbia Lions 7¢ $0 15d
British Columbia Lions vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats BUY British Columbia Lions 92¢ $6 15d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.11 · official $49.11 (match) · 17 history records