Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:31:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c21…d218 politics 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 632d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%4W / 72L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% −$14
other 14% −$2
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
all 76 -0.7% -10.2% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

632d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses4 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage632d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $50 $0 -1%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 19 $51 $0 -1%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $52 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Mar 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 12 $52 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will Grayscale be accused of insider trading? Feb 28 $52 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $52 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Nov 24 $50 $0 +1%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the Eastern Conference? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will James Harden lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Justin Herbert win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Sturm Graz win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kirk Cousins win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch a token in December? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Trudeau no confidence motion passes in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will another movie gross most in 2024? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Love win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will Joe Biden attend presidential inauguration? Dec 20 $0 $0 -4%
26-50 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Martin O'Malley be the next DNC chair? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days? Dec 10 $0 $0 -2%
Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Zircuit airdrop in 2024? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will $GOAT be listed first on Coinbase? Nov 26 $0 $0 -8%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will Mike Rogers be Trump's Defense Secretary? Nov 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will 'Wicked' gross between $115-125m opening weekend? Nov 26 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $50 20h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 24d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 25d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $50 36d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 36d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 41d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 41d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 45d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 46d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 70d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 71d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 71d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $52 76d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $52 76d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 88d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 88d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $52 94d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $52 94d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 98d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 98d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 102d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 102d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 104d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 104d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 107d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 108d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $52 111d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 99¢ $52 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records