Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:08:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c23…bf7a sports 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$186 (-5%) realized −$199 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%36W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days+$72
14 days−$354
30 days−$428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$394
other 25% +$256
economics 6% +$1
crypto 2% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +31.9% +19.3% 33% 33% -0.2%
≤30d 77 +2.0% -7.7% 36% 36% -26.9%
≤90d 89 -4.1% -13.2% 35% 35% -27.1%
all 103 +2.1% -7.6% 35% 35% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 35% -15.5%
10% -16.5% 35% -23.6%
15% -24.5% 35% -31.0%
20% -31.9% 35% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$28 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized−$199
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses36 / 67
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions3
Markets (closed)103 / 107
History coverage281d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 42¢ 56¢ $35 $46 +$11 (+32%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 +$28 +550%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $36 +$59 +165%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $31 −$1 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $24 −$23 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 +$14 +93%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 +$57 +1116%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $29 −$28 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 +$61 +238%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$60 +197%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$33 +109%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$50 +124%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 +$42 +103%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 +$67 +165%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $32 +$30 +93%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $41 +$39 +97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $28 +$35 +124%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$19 +93%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $342 −$340 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$29 +114%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 +$33 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 42¢ $36 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 42¢ $36 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $41 27h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 42¢ $41 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 33¢ $29 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $31 30h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $36 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $20 42h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $24 42h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $31 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 72¢ $203 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $41 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 4d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 5d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $31 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.13 · official $288.13 (match) · 161 history records