Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:49:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9C 0x9c25…e683 crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24 (-15%) realized −$30 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$18
other 16% −$15
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -46.4% -51.5% 50% 12% -43.3%
≤30d 9 -52.4% -56.9% 44% 11% -72.5%
≤90d 22 -28.5% -35.3% 55% 32% -20.3%
all 36 -32.8% -39.2% 50% 36% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.2% 36% -26.6%
10% -45.0% 22% -33.6%
15% -50.3% 11% -40.0%
20% -55.2% 8% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage109d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 25 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 25 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 25 $1 +$2 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 14 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 14 $13 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 14 $6 +$2 +31%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $8 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Feb 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Feb 26 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Feb 26 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Feb 26 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 26 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Feb 26 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Feb 25 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 25 $1 +$1 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $2 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 3h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 67 history records