trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 10 | $252,314 | +$253 | +0% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $18,980 | +$765 | +4% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | Jun 09 | $15,216 | +$374 | +2% |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? | Jun 08 | $14,070 | +$930 | +7% |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 08 | $468,941 | +$1,255 | +0% |
| Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska | Jun 04 | $1,612 | −$964 | -60% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $558,644 | −$1,224 | -0% |
| Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Jun 03 | $17,000 | −$16,684 | -98% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | Jun 02 | $99 | +$1 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Jun 02 | $411,674 | +$7,770 | +2% |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | Jun 02 | $40,319 | +$1,157 | +3% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | Jun 02 | $45,803 | +$775 | +2% |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | Jun 02 | $8,905 | +$314 | +4% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | Jun 01 | $236,098 | +$231 | +0% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | Jun 01 | $19,975 | +$137 | +1% |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | Jun 01 | $36,667 | +$12,653 | +34% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Jun 01 | $321,697 | +$101,124 | +31% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $10,300 | +$6,633 | +64% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | May 27 | $19,800 | +$200 | +1% |
| Will Union Bordeaux Begles win? | May 23 | $965 | +$535 | +55% |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 20 | $28,600 | +$1,179 | +4% |
| Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 20 | $19,140 | +$798 | +4% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | May 18 | $20,387 | +$496 | +2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +2.7% | -7.1% | 100% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤30d | 23 | +2.7% | -7.1% | 87% | 17% | -4.9% |
| ≤90d | 23 | +2.7% | -7.1% | 87% | 17% | -4.9% |
| all | 23 | +2.7% | -7.1% | 87% | 17% | -4.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -7.1% | 17% | -4.9% |
| 10% | -15.9% | 17% | -14.0% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -24.1% | 9% | -22.3% |
| 20% | -31.5% | 9% | -29.9% |