Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:39:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9c26…d474 sports 167 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$630 (+3%) realized +$514 · open +$116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%49W / 113L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$549est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$420
7 days+$320
14 days+$258
30 days+$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$887
other 2% −$299
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -5.7% -14.6% 27% 27% -1.4%
≤30d 61 -8.7% -17.4% 26% 26% -3.1%
≤90d 162 +1.8% -7.9% 30% 29% -7.7%
all 162 +1.8% -7.9% 30% 29% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 29% -7.7%
10% -16.7% 27% -16.5%
15% -24.8% 24% -24.6%
20% -32.2% 23% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$236 vs −$98 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized+$514
Unrealized+$116
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses49 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$549
Open positions5
Markets (closed)162 / 167
History coverage50d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Gustavo Heide 19¢ 51¢ $30 $81 +$51 (+168%)
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Alina Charaeva 35¢ 55¢ $50 $78 +$28 (+56%)
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle Henry Searle 22¢ 50¢ $30 $67 +$38 (+125%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Raphael Collignon 9¢ 14¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+61%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Aryna Sabalenka 40¢ 6¢ $14 $2 −$12 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $51 +$39 +78%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 19 $31 +$80 +262%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 19 $51 +$127 +249%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $36 +$51 +143%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta Jun 19 $33 +$42 +126%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $14 +$18 +124%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $102 +$423 +413%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $103 +$269 +262%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $196 +$281 +143%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $197 −$194 -99%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $64 −$63 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $31 +$48 +156%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $34 −$34 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 +$172 +287%
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 −$59 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $64 −$63 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 +$3 +14%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 +$6 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen SELL Otto Virtanen 99¢ $90 5m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 40¢ $14 12m
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 22¢ $31 23m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 9¢ $21 48m
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 55¢ $51 56m
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 35¢ $51 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku SELL Yeon-Woo Ku 100¢ $111 1h
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide BUY Gustavo Heide 19¢ $31 1h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Talia Gibson 18¢ $31 1h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Kilian Feldbausch 34¢ $31 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann SELL Darja Vidmanova 100¢ $178 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 99¢ $87 2h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta SELL Facundo Acosta 99¢ $75 2h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Alex de Minaur 4¢ $10 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 27¢ $31 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Darja Vidmanova 28¢ $51 3h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta BUY Facundo Acosta 43¢ $33 3h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 40¢ $36 4h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 30¢ $36 4h
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 35¢ $36 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $32 14h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 44¢ $14 15h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin SELL Zhizhen Zhang 100¢ $526 19h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Raphael Collignon 100¢ $372 21h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Zhizhen Zhang 19¢ $102 21h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 100¢ $478 21h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 51¢ $197 22h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 27¢ $103 22h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Ann Li 40¢ $196 22h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 46¢ $203 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.01 · official $282.15 · 248 history records