Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:24:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9c28…cda7 weather 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$11 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate71%36W / 15L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 54% +$9
tech 27% −$4
other 19% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 -0.0% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 32 +0.1% -9.5% 69% 0% -9.5%
all 51 +0.1% -9.4% 71% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.39 per $1 lost it wins $3.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$404
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses36 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage109d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $306 $303 −$4 (-1%)
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $101 $101 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 12 $613 +$1 +0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 31 $481 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 28 $503 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 25 $356 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $109 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $190 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 29? Apr 29 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on April 24? Apr 25 $200 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $224 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 20? Apr 22 $246 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 19 $151 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 11? Apr 13 $183 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 10 $121 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 7? Apr 09 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 6? Apr 09 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 8? Apr 09 $186 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 3? Apr 06 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 4? Apr 06 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 5? Apr 06 $153 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 5? Apr 06 $161 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Apr 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 02 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 29? Mar 30 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on March 28? Mar 29 $65 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 27 $62 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on March 25? Mar 26 $77 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 24 $123 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on March 2 Mar 23 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 20 Mar 22 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Ma Mar 20 $258 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 19? Mar 19 $311 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 17 Mar 18 $226 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 17 $248 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on Mar Mar 16 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Ma Mar 14 $447 +$1 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 13 $157 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 11? Mar 12 $446 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 10? Mar 11 $220 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on March 8? Mar 10 $220 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 08 $220 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 6? Mar 07 $220 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets in March 2026? Mar 06 $220 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 4? Mar 05 $220 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 3? Mar 04 $219 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on March 2? Mar 03 $219 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or higher on March 2? Mar 03 $219 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on March 1? Mar 02 $219 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $112 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $306 4d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $298 5d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $301 7d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $271 9d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $272 10d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $311 11d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $312 13d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $316 13d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 95¢ $312 16d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $221 17d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $221 18d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $187 20d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $187 22d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $221 23d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $221 24d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $103 25d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $135 26d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $104 27d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $135 30d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $156 31d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $156 45d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 29? BUY No 100¢ $144 49d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $109 50d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $103 50d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $103 51d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $212 52d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $213 53d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $200 54d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $190 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $403.89 · official $403.89 (match) · 122 history records