Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:34:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9C 0x9c28…abe9 sports 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$103 (+3%) realized +$102 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%36W / 60L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$34
14 days+$45
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$84
other 27% +$242
crypto 2% −$17
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -1.9% -11.2% 47% 47% -0.2%
≤30d 48 -8.1% -16.8% 44% 44% -1.2%
≤90d 73 -27.4% -34.3% 36% 36% -26.9%
all 96 -25.8% -32.9% 38% 38% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 38% -5.6%
10% -39.3% 38% -14.6%
15% -45.1% 38% -22.9%
20% -50.5% 35% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$19 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$102
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses36 / 60
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)96 / 100
History coverage234d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 34¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $5 +$9 +181%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $32 +$29 +92%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 +$7 +73%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 $0 -3%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$29 +146%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +54%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$9 +93%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1 +$2 +238%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$6 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$8 +81%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 +$9 +85%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$12 +119%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$30 +120%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $17 +$25 +146%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 03 $100 −$99 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 54m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $5 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $61 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $12 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 12h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $10 13h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 13h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 13h
Egypt leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $18 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 52¢ $10 34h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 36h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $10 37h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $10 37h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $10 37h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 37h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 25¢ $5 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 45h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $18 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $18 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.85 · official $25.90 (match) · 197 history records