Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:55:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c28…f685 crypto 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized −$9 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate27%8W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$132
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$258
other 19% +$190
sports 16% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -17.9% -25.7% 40% 30% +16.2%
≤30d 30 -16.4% -24.3% 27% 20% -11.2%
≤90d 30 -16.4% -24.3% 27% 20% -11.2%
all 30 -16.4% -24.3% 27% 20% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 20% -11.2%
10% -31.6% 20% -19.7%
15% -38.2% 20% -27.5%
20% -44.2% 20% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$29 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses8 / 22
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage12d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Over 49¢ 46¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 58¢ 100¢ $25 $43 +$18 (+72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$44 +86%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$14 -67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $151 +$271 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -82%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $22 −$21 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $65 −$61 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $57 −$54 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $43 +$158 +367%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$77 +720%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$15 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $66 −$31 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 3¢ $6 2m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 5¢ $10 2m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $21 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $422 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $151 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 9d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 9d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 9d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.94 · official $135.94 (match) · 95 history records