Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c29…8c43 other 387 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 124d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$13,172 (+7%) realized +$13,168 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%105W / 279L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$492per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$150est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 124d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$6,866
sports 2% −$157
politics 0% −$662
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.0% -9.5% 37% 26% -25.2%
≤30d 104 +7.4% -2.8% 36% 30% -15.8%
≤90d 256 -17.6% -25.5% 29% 26% -16.7%
all 384 -19.1% -26.8% 27% 25% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.8% 25% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.8% 20% -15.6%
15% -40.2% 17% -23.7%
20% -46.1% 14% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -28% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$532 vs −$178 · ×2.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized+$13,168
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses105 / 279
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$150
Open positions3
Markets (closed)384 / 387
History coverage124d ⚠
Avg bet$492
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 384 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $150 $141 −$9 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 23¢ $30 $50 +$20 (+68%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $156 +$40 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $105 −$30 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $309 −$262 -85%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Laura Samson Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 23 $26 −$8 -31%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connel Jun 23 $62 −$61 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al Jun 22 $21 +$13 +66%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola Jun 22 $153 −$27 -18%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Daria Snigur Jun 22 $92 −$92 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch Jun 22 $46 +$8 +18%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $30 +$2 +5%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Joao Lucas Da Si Jun 22 $56 −$42 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $208 −$26 -13%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $204 +$281 +138%
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 21 $102 −$64 -62%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $51 +$5 +9%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $41 +$219 +535%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $255 −$219 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Erika Andreeva Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 20 $26 −$16 -62%
Heilbronn: Joel Schwaerzler vs Matej Dodig Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Prostejov: Tristan Boyer vs Filip Jianu Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Xiaodi You Jun 20 $18 +$1 +6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Emily Appleton Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $26 $0 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $26 −$21 -81%
Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 19 $48 −$45 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 19 $78 −$25 -32%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 19 $145 −$20 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 19 $5 +$7 +126%
Birmingham: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Linda Klimovicova Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $77 +$177 +230%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $156 +$273 +175%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $259 +$87 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $26 −$17 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $259 −$108 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $208 −$63 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $105 −$57 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $26 −$22 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $254 +$196 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $156 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $196 2h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $52 27h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $18 39h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $16 2d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $22 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $47 4d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $52 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $156 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $49 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $52 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Laura Samson SELL Laura Samson 0¢ $1 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 4¢ $5 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson SELL Gabriela Knutson 5¢ $18 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 10¢ $26 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 7¢ $26 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al SELL Felipe Meligeni Alves 7¢ $34 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola 90¢ $20 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connel SELL Joel Schwaerzler 0¢ $0 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al BUY Felipe Meligeni Alves 4¢ $21 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connel BUY Joel Schwaerzler 3¢ $5 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connel BUY Joel Schwaerzler 7¢ $26 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola 31¢ $106 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 40¢ $153 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connel BUY Joel Schwaerzler 19¢ $20 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connel BUY Joel Schwaerzler 19¢ $10 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios BUY Marco Cecchinato 8¢ $21 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch SELL Florent Bax 18¢ $29 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.33 · official $209.33 (match) · 3500 history records