Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c2e…2f28 crypto 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$61 (+3%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate61%43W / 27L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$43
14 days+$43
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$5
other 1% +$84
world 1% −$20
sports 0% −$10
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -2.9% -12.2% 61% 43% -7.9%
≤30d 70 -2.9% -12.2% 61% 43% -7.9%
≤90d 70 -2.9% -12.2% 61% 43% -7.9%
all 70 -2.9% -12.2% 61% 43% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 43% -7.9%
10% -20.6% 23% -16.7%
15% -28.2% 21% -24.8%
20% -35.3% 13% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses43 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage15d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $75 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $81 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $96 −$13 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$11 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$13 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $173 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $90 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -54%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $84 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $49 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$7 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $46 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $66 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $46 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $76 −$46 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $17 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $14 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $75 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $81 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $81 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $80 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $16 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $15 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $36 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $15 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $15 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $19 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 200 history records